• Home
  • Blog
Give Me Free Picks Now!
Home Basketball

Final Part 4: Do NBA Teams Tend To Go Over Or Under At End Of Season?

staff by staff
August 19, 2022
in Basketball, Expert Picks, NBA Picks & Prediction, Sports Betting Tips & Strategies
0

Today, I want to share with you the continued findings of my research on whether NBA teams tend to go Over or Under at the end of the regular season.

Recently, I noticed a possible pattern in the NBA where teams playing back-to-back games in certain scenarios tend to go Under the total at the end of the season when they are tired.

Last week, I shared with you my findings on the above hypothesis based on the last 10 years of the NBA. But I wasn’t satisfied with just 10 years of data. I needed much more data before coming to any conclusion. In the last week, I continued to dig deeper into the historical stats to discover whether or not there is merit to this betting strategy. Today, I am sharing my latest findings with you in this final part 4 of my research which spans for the last 15 years of the NBA:

Here’s the NBA angle I tested:

  • The game must be played on February 1st or after. Reasoning: February is considered a month toward the end of the season where teams tend to start showing fatigue. This affects how many points are scored in the game.
  • The team must be playing back-to-back games. This means they must play 2 consecutive games without a rest day. Reasoning: At a time near the end of the season when teams are already tired, the fatigue effect is magnified further when a team is forced to play two consecutive games in a row without any day of rest. This can affect how many points are scored in the 2nd game.
  • Research is now fully conducted and tested for the last 15 years (in parts 1-3, I only tested for the last 10 years)

The hypothesis is that when teams are tired at the end of the season, they tend to slow the pace of the game down and score less points, thus pushing the Total of the game to go Under. Therefore, the smart wager to make is assumed to be on the Under the Total in these scenarios. But is there any truth to this hypothesis?

Here are my findings. Below is the Over/Under the Total record for the last 15 years of NBA (since the 2018 NBA season) on the 2nd game of a back-to-back series starting in February or later:

1896 Overs – 1955 Unders

Overall, more games have indeed gone Under. However, the gap here is not statistically significant enough to conclude any real betting advantage. Furthermore, the key win rate percentage margin to hit is 52.4% in order to break even when betting on sports, assuming all -110 odds. Therefore, there is no betting value to just blindly taking the Under in these situations. Here’s how the record looks for games only start after March or April:

Overall record if we only count games starting on or after March 1st: 1285 Overs – 1237 Unders
Overall record if we only count games starting on or after April 1st: 478 Overs – 504 Unders

Since no real conclusion can be drawn from the figures above, our hypothesis needs to be further refined through the use of additional filters. First, I want to see what happens if the back-to-back series was played in the order of Home-Home, Home-Road, Road-Home, and Road-Road. The logic behind this is to see if any effects of travel can have a measurable and statistically significant impact on the scoring total of games.

Below are the results of my findings. The records below are written in Over-Under format. For example, Home-Home: 35-45 means that when a team plays two back-to-back home games, the 2nd game goes Over 35 times and Under 45 times:

HH: 65-83 (56.08% Unders)
HR: 579-620
RH: 554-545
RR: 698-707

The home-home combination here yields a winning percentage of 56%. However, the sample size here of just under 150 games may be too small for us to make a conclusion.

I continued to research deeper. What happens if the team lost the previous game, or won the previous game? Would their victory or defeat in the 1st game of a back-to-back series have any noticeable impact on the scoring total of the 2nd game? Here are my findings, again written in the Over-Under format:

If team lost the previous game: 1080-1007
If team won the previous game: 816-948 (53.74% Unders)

This is interesting. The results here indicate that if a team loses the 1st game, they tend to speed up and score more to go Over the Total in the 2nd game, but not at a margin high enough to produce any betting value. On the other hand, when a team wins the first game, they would usually slow down on the 2nd game and go Under the Total at a 53.74% win rate.

I continued to research further. What if the team went Over in the 1st game? What if they went Under? How did that affect their scoring in the 2nd game? Here are the results, again in the Over/Under format:

If the team went Over in the 1st game of the back-to-back: 960-938
If the team went Under in the 1st game of the back-to-back: 916-992

The numbers are even enough that no betting value can be concluded from these findings. Teams do tend to go Over and Under consecutively, but at no statistically significant amount. However, it is interesting here to note down that when a team goes Over, they tend to repeat it again in the 2nd game. The same is true when a team goes Under: They are likely to repeat that again in the 2nd game as well.

I wanted more. What happened if teams would over-performed or under-performed in the 1st game? Here are the definitions I use for over-performing and under-performing:

Over-perform: The team not only won the 1st game but also won against the spread.

Under-perform: The team not only lost the 1st game but also lost against the spread.

Here are my findings on the Over-Under results in back-to-back series after February if teams would over-perform or under-perform in the 1st game:

If team under-performed the previous game (lost the game PLUS lost ATS): 838-767
If team over-performed the previous game (won the game PLUS won ATS): 655-791 (54.7% Unders)

The record in the last 15 years shows that if teams over-performed the 1st game (won the game PLUS won ATS), they’d end up going Under 54.7% of the time in the 2nd game! Fatigue issues is the most likely cause here that contribute to this effect.

I still needed more. What happened if teams would over-perform AND also go Over in the 1st game? And what happened if teams would under-perform AND go Under in the 1st game? How did that affect their scoring on the 2nd game of a back-to-back series after February? Here are my findings:

If team under-performed PLUS went Under the total in the previous game (lost the game + lost ATS + went Under the total): 412-382
If team over-performed PLUS went Over the total in the previous game (won the game + won ATS + went Over the total): 328-379 (53.61% Unders)
But wait! Remember that before, we noted down that teams tend to go Over and Under consecutively. We also know that teams tend to get tired after overperforming in the first game of a back-to-back late in the season. Therefore, here’s the next angle I really wanted to test:
If a team over-performed PLUS went Under the total in the previous game (won the game + won ATS + went Under the total), then what’s the historical probability that they’ll go Under again in the 2nd game?
The record is 321-403 (55.66% Unders)
This is the most conclusive hypothesis yet. Here’s the explanation:
  • Teams are more tired later in the season
  • Teams are more tired playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back series
  • Teams that went Under the total in the 1st game mean that they are trending in that direction and are more likely to go Under again in the next game
  • Teams that overperformed in the 1st game of the back-to-back contribute to further fatigue issues in the 2nd game.
Due to all of these factors, the smart bet to take is on the Under the total for qualifying bets.

Here is my final conclusion on this betting strategy based on the last 15 years of NBA research:When an NBA team over-performed and also went Under the total in the 1st game of a back-to-back series starting in February, then the smart bet to take is on the Under the total in the 2nd game. This betting strategy has produced a 55.66% win rate within a statistically valid sample size of games in the last 15 years of the NBA.

Click here to see part of my research: Part 1: Do NBA Teams Tend To Go Over Or Under At End Of Season?

Click here to see part of my research: Part 2: Do NBA Teams Tend To Go Over Or Under At End Of Season?

Click here to see part of my research: Part 3: Do NBA Teams Tend To Go Over Or Under At End Of Season?

Want to follow along and bet on the same picks that I’m taking myself each day? I’ve won tens of millions of dollars from betting on sports over the years. Now, you can follow me and take on the same picks I’m taking through the premium Whale Picks membership. Click here to lock in your VIP access to The Whale Picks.

To your success,

The Sports Betting Whale

http://www.TheWhalePicks.com

Previous Post

Today’s MLB Game Prediction: Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels -Baseball Pick for April 19, 2018

Next Post

Today’s NHL Game Prediction: Philadelphia Flyers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins -Hockey Pick for April 20, 2018

Next Post

Today’s NHL Game Prediction: Philadelphia Flyers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins -Hockey Pick for April 20, 2018

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Get In Touch

info@thechampsystem.com

+1 (702) 277-0282

Social Media

Visit our social media pages:

Youtube Twitter Instagram Pinterest Facebook Snapchat

Affiliate Program

  • Become an Affiliate

Disclaimer: Expert Free Picks, and its affiliated sports handicappers such as Whale Sports and the Champ Group are not online gambling operators, or gambling sites of any kind. We solely provide information about sports betting. We do not take bets, or receive affiliate revenues from online gambling companies that do. We have no financial interest in our readers or subscribers placing wagers. We do not claim to provide any knowledge as to the local laws regarding sports betting in the jurisdiction of our readers. It is the responsibility of all visitors to our website or subscribers to our premium services to check local laws in their own area before placing bets. States differ on the age requirement for sports betting with a minimum age requirement of 18 with most states being 21. Check and adhere to the laws in your state for age restrictions. Expert Free Picks and its affiliates are not responsible for advising on age limits and restrictions in the states. Readers and subscribers should understand any and all responsibility for betting decisions rests with them. Expert Free Picks and its affiliates cannot not be held responsible for the decisions of our readers or subscribers. By visiting our website you confirm that you do not hold Expert Free Picks or its affiliates responsible for your gambling decisions or any losses that may follow from that personal decision. Sports betting involves an extreme amount of risk. We advise everyone to gamble responsibly and not wager more than you can comfortably afford to lose.

Copyright © 2023 Expert Free Picks | All Rights Reserved.

Market Inefficiencies in Sports Betting

I can’t emphasize this enough: If you want to make money in any type of competitive market, including sports betting, then you MUST account for factors that others aren’t.

To simply rely on well-known, publicly available information when handicapping sports games is to fool yourself into thinking that you have an edge when you really don’t. Take another example in the stock market: Even if Tesla announces that they made record profits last quarter does not mean that right now is an especially good time to buy Tesla stocks. That’s because the current price of Tesla stocks has already taken into account how well the company did last quarter. So, to account for that factor when it’s already been accounted for in the current stock price is a case of “double-dipping,” and you’re fooling yourself into thinking that you have an edge when you really don’t.

Likewise, to gain an edge when betting on sports, you have to look for meaningful factors that the sportsbooks are not accounting for when they set the lines for the games so that you can zero in on undervalued teams before the market makes a correction – The equivalent of buying into real estate in a city BEFORE the news comes out that a new major company will be moving into town and creating thousands of new job opportunities. What you’d be effectively doing in this case is exploiting a market inefficiency. If you wait until the news becomes public, then you’re late because by that time, the price of the property will have increased proportionally to match everyone’s expectations.

It’s not as easy as you might think to find an incredible bargain in real estate because there are so many participants involved – not only in buyers but also in sellers. And as is true in the “wisdom of the crowd,” the more people involved in making guesses on the true value of a property, the more accurate the average of the guesses becomes. If many buyers and sellers are pricing their properties and bidding on them, then the final closing prices of these properties are usually the accurate prices. Therefore, the idea that you could stumble upon an exceptionally good bargain of a house that is priced ignorantly by the seller for much less than what it is worth, which only you could identify as a great value yourself but not the thousands of other real estate investors who are also trying to do exactly the same, is a notion that plays out much less commonly than you might think.

To find a great deal in any competitive market, you need to find an inefficiency and capitalize on it before others do. The problem is that inefficiencies are usually corrected very quickly. It takes as little as just ONE person to be aware of an inefficiency before it is corrected. Take the field of art for example. Let’s say that for a magical reason, you have indisputable information that an unknown and undiscovered artist will become wildly famous within the next 3 months. You can buy this artist’s painting now for $25. And in 3 months, the value of that artwork will rise to $10,000. What will you do in this case? Of course, the right strategy here would be for you to buy the artwork immediately for $25. That way, you can cash out in three months once its value rises to $10,000.

So, if you’re the only single person in the world who is aware that this undiscovered artist will become famous soon, and that his $25 painting will definitely rise to $10,000 in a few months (in other words: you’re the only person who is aware of the current price inefficiency), then you stand to gain an enormous amount of profits by buying into his artwork now. But if there’s just one other person who is also aware of the price inefficiency as well, then guess what? Your edge is lost. That other person is likely to come and offer much more money to buy the same piece of artwork. Instead of paying $25, he might tell the artist that he’s willing to pay $100. Upon hearing that, you might tell the artist you’ll be happy to offer $200 for the artwork. The other guy, knowing that the price is still highly inefficient, will now offer $500. In fact, you and the other person who is also aware of the price inefficiency will go into a bidding war until the final selling price approaches near $10,000. At that point, buying the artwork is no longer going to provide you with an enticing return. This example shows that if there’s even just one other person who is currently aware of a price inefficiency, then that one person alone is enough to correct it if he acts on it, leaving you with a very limited opportunity to profit on the inefficiency yourself.

Simply put: If you are the only person in the world who is aware of an inefficiency, then you stand to gain an edge. But as long as there is someone else who’s also aware of the inefficiency and can act on it, then your edge is threatened. The more people who are aware of the inefficiency, the faster that hole gets patched up!

To be a successful sports handicapper, you need to tap into the mindset of a successful investor. Take this to heart: You can’t consistently beat the market in the long run by relying on publicly available information that everyone else already considers. The more people who are aware of the information, the less useful that information becomes.

Here’s an example: A recent article stated: “Amazon reports $59.7 billion in Q1 revenue: AWS up 41%, subscriptions up 40%, and ‘other’ up 34%”

Pretty impressive numbers, right? So, does it mean that right now would be an exceptionally good time to buy some Amazon stocks based on that information? The answer is no, at least not based on that information alone. The current stock price of Amazon has already taken into account the fact that they did very well in the last quarter. Therefore, if you buy into Amazon stock right now based solely on the fact that they performed well last quarter, then you’re simply factoring in something that has already been reflected in the current stock price. As a result, you’re fooling yourself into thinking that you have an advantage when you really don’t.

Remember: The more people who are aware of the publicly available information, the less useful that information becomes in predicting the value of the associated security. The reason is simple: The more people who are aware of that information, the more likely it is that the current price of the security has already taken that into account, and therefore the current price is reflecting its fair market value.

We can take what we’ve learned here and compare it to a similar example in sports. Let’s say that earlier today, the Boston Red Sox destroyed the LA Dodgers 8-1 in a brutal blowout. Seems like the Red Sox team has the Dodgers’ number. Does that mean that based on this information alone, you should bet on the Red Sox tomorrow to make some easy money?

The answer here is no, at least not based on that information alone. The money line odds of tomorrow’s game have already taken into account the fact that the Red Sox completely outmatched the Dodgers in today’s game. The Red Sox destroying the Dodgers today is public information already available to everyone. And if others feel the same way as you do, then the odds for tomorrow’s game will reflect this. What happens next in this scenario is that the odds for tomorrow’s game will be set at a number where you’ll need to risk more money to win less money when betting on the Red Sox. Remember: The more people who are aware of the publicly available information, the less useful that information becomes when using it to make a prediction in a competitive market.

In other words: The greater the number of people who know that the Red Sox completely outclassed their opponent today, the more likely it is that the lines for tomorrow’s game would already factor into account that information. Therefore, relying on that piece of information alone when handicapping tomorrow’s game might be a case of fooling yourself into thinking that you have an edge when you really don’t. To beat the market when it comes to betting on sports, you must tap into valuable information that the sportsbooks and other sports bettors are not privy to.

The Red Sox may even be a good value bet tomorrow, who knows. But if they are a good value bet, that value better be coming from something else that the sportsbooks are not already factoring into account when they set the lines. If you rely on publicly available information that everyone already knows and has already taken into consideration, you are fooling yourself into thinking that you have an advantage when you really don’t have one.

I’ve seen it happen time and time again. An NFL team gets blown out 0-34 on one Sunday, and then all of a sudden everyone is deathly afraid to bet on them the next week. Remember that the result of a recent game is something that everyone already knows, and the more that information is known, the less useful it becomes because it is more likely that the lines for the upcoming game have already taken that information into account.

The sportsbook sets the line for an upcoming game by taking into account all the relevant factors surrounding the game. So, if you think that by factoring in something to give you an edge which the sportsbook has already factored into account when they set the lines, then you’re just simply fooling yourself into thinking that you have an advantage when you really don’t.

Enjoy what you’ve read so far? You can now join the World’s First-Ever Free Sports Handicapping Service and receive my picks and The Whale’s picks for free! Go to: www.ExpertFreePicks.com

We used to charge our VIP clients up to $10,000/month for these picks. Now, we give away all our picks for free so that everyone can share ino the success.